Wednesday, September 16, 2009

How I'll Compare Fighters - Odds

I've created a fairly pretty simple algorithm that'll calculate the odds between two fighters. This is not purely objective, so there is some bias in it (which is actually a good thing - numbers don't tell the whole story). I rank the quality of a fighter's last opponents, the quality of his wins and losses, his technical skills (in my eyes + 2 others), his current momentum, and his overall record. I add these all up and leave an extra ten points that I can use at my discretion for any sort of bias or hunch I have that can't be shown with numbers.

I'll be using it as a supplement for my fight predictions. I might not always agree with this number, but I think it's a fairly accurate depiction of what is likely to happen.

Individual scores are calculated on a scale from 1-100. I will add the scores and use that sum to create a percent for each fighter so that they can be more easily compared.

Example:

Fighter A has 72.5 points
Fighter B has 48.9 points

That creates a sum of 121.4 points. Then I'll use that to derive the percents: 60% for fighter A vs 40% for fighter B.

These are not indicative of what the betting odds will be.

0 comments:

Post a Comment